O/T: A Super El Niño Coming?

You will have seen articles about a super El Niño forecast this year, such as this from the CBC. NOAA, the US Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, is forecasting a greater-than-50 % probability of Strong or Very Strong El Niño conditions for the coming fall and winter.

What does it mean for the conditions where you live? Here, from NOAA via the CBC article, is a map of approximate wintertime El Niño weather patterns. Warmer-than-normal conditions prevail across the West and Prairies. Drier conditions, shown in purple, occur south of the Upper Great Lakes.

While warmer conditions might extend farther east if the El Niño is strong, it could manifest as more variable conditions, as warmer air clashes with cold Arctic air. Remember the 1998 Ice Storm, which was followed by cold temperatures, making it truly miserable for those who lost power for days. That was during a strong El Niño event.

If your ancestors were around in 1887-88 they would have lived through North America’s “Year Without a Winter.” Characterized as a “black winter” due to the complete lack of snow cover across Manitoba and parts of Ontario, December 1877 brought overflowing rain barrels and muddy roads instead of snowbanks. In Winnipeg, the monthly mean temperature was more than 23°F (about 13°C) warmer than the average of the preceding five years. In the Ottawa Valley, the lack of snow hindered logging operations and travel on what would normally be snow-packed roads.

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