Despite the fanfare, scientific analysis confirms that groundhogs are more celebrity than climatologist.

Studies, including a 2021 assessment by Lakehead University, show a consistent 50% groundhog accuracy rate. That’s like tossing a coin.

The NOAA Data: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reports that Punxsutawney Phil has been right only 40% of the time over the last decade.

Reliable vs. Unreliable Animal Signs
Our ancestors looked tothese signs to manage crops and travel. While some are grounded in biology, others are purely mythical.

High Reliability (Short-Term)
These behaviours are biological responses to immediate environmental changes:

Low-Flying Birds: They descend as barometric pressure drops; the thinner air makes high-altitude flight difficult before a storm.

Bees: Often return to the hive en masse just before rain due to sensitivity to static electricity and moisture.

Sharks: Move to deeper waters when they sense a drop in hydrostatic pressure, often predicting hurricanes.

Low Reliability (Long-Term)
These are popular myths with no statistical backing for seasonal forecasting:

Woolly Bear Caterpillars: The width of their bands reflects the previous season’s conditions and age, not the upcoming winter.

Cows Lying Down: Research shows cows lie down frequently to chew cud; there is no proven link to imminent rainfall.

Tune into my online-only BIFHSGO talk Rain-Soaked Roots: Weather Shaped the Lives of Our British Isles Ancestors / 10 a.m. EST on 14 February. Tune in at 9 am for Paul Cripwell on Exploring Pictures with AI: the Good and the Bad.

Find out more at https://www.bifhsgo.ca/events

 

Ever wondered what stood exactly where your house is two hundred years ago? Or perhaps you’re a researcher looking to overlay historical land boundaries onto modern satellite data?

At 10 am EST on Wednesday, 11 February, the National Library of Scotland (NLS) is hosting a deep-dive workshop that turns its massive map archive into a high-tech time machine. If you’ve ever played around with their map viewer but felt like you were only scratching the surface, this is the session for you.

Don’t miss out. Spaces fill quickly. If interested,, register now for this free workshop via the official NLS website:

Register Here: NLS Georeferenced Maps Workshop

Miscellaneous items I found interesting this week.

Wikipedia: Unusual articles
Articles that Wikipedians have identified as being somewhat unusual.  For unusual contributions that are of greater levity, see Wikipedia: Silly Things.

The Broomfield Bible of Charles I

Ancestry updated its complete Find a Grave collection on 29 January

AI systems could use Met Office and National Archives data under UK plans

Thinking Out Loud Together: Why Civil Discourse Matters More Than Ever
An in-person event on Wednesday, 25 February at 7 pm at Library and Archives Canada in cooperation with the Ottawa Public Library. A special event during Freedom to Read Week 2026 with Randy Boyagoda, novelist and Professor of English at the University of Toronto, where he also serves as the university’s advisor on civil discourse.

Thanks to the following individuals for their comments and tips: Anne Sterling, Ann, Anonymous,  Brenda Turner, Donald Read, Gail, J-Rod, Teresa, Unknown.

 

The Ottawa Public Library has a new brand. The old one was a familiar friend. It didn’t take me long to decide I like the change.

The rebranding reminds us that public libraries are the quintessential third place, sanctuaries where presence alone is enough. Unlike cafes that expect purchases or malls designed to encourage spending, libraries welcome everyone through their doors. There’s no economic barrier; most of the funding comes from property taxes already paid.

There’s so much to enjoy. Public libraries offer free access in-branch to major databases such as Ancestry.ca and serve as FamilySearch affiliates. Other commercial resources may be available free online. Collections of local historical records, city directories, old newspapers on microfilm, and regional history books that may be out of print or unavailable elsewhere are likely available at a central library. Interlibrary loan systems allow access to materials from across the country.

Do you take advantage? 

Several FamilySearch Records (not Full Text) collection titles covering England, Wales, and Scotland have been updated between January 25-26, 2026.

England

England Births and Christenings (1538-1975), containing over 39 million records.
England Marriages (1538-1973), including more than 10 million entries.
The National Index of Wills and Administrations for England and Wales (1858-1957), with 8.4 million records.

The British Newspaper Archive Family Notices collection contains 4 million records, while the Obituaries collection contains 723,000 records.

Wales

Multiple Welsh county parish register collections have been updated:

• Glamorganshire Parish Registers (1538-1912): 734,794 records
• Denbighshire Parish Registers (1538-1912): 692,437 records
• Flintshire Parish Registers (1538-1912): 498,887 records
• Carmarthenshire Parish Registers (1538-1912): 464,062 records
• Brecknockshire Parish Registers (1538-1912): 202,792 records
• Caernarvonshire Parish Registers (1538-1912): 93,339 records
• Glamorgan Parish Register Marriages (1837-1923): 56,282 records

Scotland

Scotland Church Records and Kirk Session Records (1658-1919) containing 235,176 records.

United Kingdom

United Kingdom World War I Service Records (1914-1920) with 4,215,127 records.

In England, in the 18th and 19th centuries, the most common given names were John, Thomas, William, Richard, and Robert for boys, and Mary, Elizabeth, Ann/Anne, Sarah, and Jane for girls.

Their predominance was reinforced by traditional naming patterns

1st Son: Father’s father (Paternal Grandfather)
2nd Son: Mother’s father (Maternal Grandfather)
3rd Son: The father
4th Son: Father’s eldest brother
1st Daughter: Mother’s mother (Maternal Grandmother)
2nd Daughter: Father’s mother (Paternal Grandmother)
3rd Daughter: The mother
4th Daughter: Mother’s eldest sister.

Things began to change in the 20th century, as shown by Office for National Statistics spreadsheets for England and Wales. John and Mary fell out of the top 100 names. The top names now, Muhammad and Olivia, don’t appear in the lists until recently.

Since the mid-20th century, there’s the influence of popular culture and music.

Michelle
​The Beatles released Michelle in December 1965 on the album Rubber Soul. While the name was already gaining popularity, the Beatles caught the wave. Michelle birth registrations doubled in one year, based on FreeBMD data.

Registrations remained above 7,500 annually before gradually declining.

Tammy
Another case with a jump in registrations. I thought it might occur following the release of Debbie Reynolds 1957 hit from the film Tammy and the Bachelor.

The name does not appear in FreeBMD until 1957, then there’s only a blip. The big jump in 1975 is attributed to the popularity of the song, “Stand by Your Man,” byTammy Wynette.

Future generations of family historians will still have the old conundrum of a succession Mary, Mary, Ann, Mary for pre-WW2. Afterwards, when the popular song has faded from memory, that will be replaced by the puzzle of “whyTammy”, and then by appreciation for the insight it gives into the parents’ cultural influences. 

 

The 31st Scottish Indexes Conference, online, will be held on Saturday, 31 January 2026.

On the programme are:

‘How did my Scottish ancestors get married?’ by Tahitia McCabe, Head of the Strathclyde Institute for Genealogical Studies

‘Taking The High Road’ by Andrew Armstrong, genealogist at Relatively Scottish

‘The Edinburgh Public Dispensary, Patients and Doctors’ by Daisy Cunynghame, Heritage Manager & Librarian at the Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh (RCPE)

‘Dive Deeper Into Scottish Church Records’ by Alison Spring, genealogist at Scottish Ancestral Research

‘Crofter ancestors and the Crofters Commission records’ by Jane Harris, retired genealogist

‘Using DNA for Family History Research – A Beginner’s Guide’ by Chris Paton, genealogist and author

‘Locating Scottish Burial Records’ by Emma Maxwell

Scottish Genealogy Q&A hosted by Graham and Emma Maxwell, genealogist and co-founder of Scottish Indexes.

Find out more and timing options for your location at https://www.scottishindexes.com/conference.aspx

 

It’s particularly timely this 27 January, International Holocaust Remembrance Day, to reflect on the lessons of history.

Given recent shifts in the US social and political landscape, we are reminded that exclusionary rhetoric can erode civil liberties rapidly.

Ancestry has freely accessible holocaust-related databases, and a blog post which increases awareness of them, and the reasons they exist.

Choose from these selected free online events. All times are Eastern Time, unless otherwise noted. Registration may be required in advance—please check the links to avoid disappointment. For many more events, mainly in the U.S., visit https://conferencekeeper.org/virtual/

Tuesday 27 January

2:30 pm: “Gone But Not Forgotten”- (US) Military Records and Genealogy, by Kristen Bailey for Allen County Public Library Genealogy Center.
https://acpl.libnet.info/event/15260880

8 pm: Sorting DNA Matches with MyHeritage’s Theory of Family Relativity, by Shuna Hicks for Legacy Family Tree Webinars.
https://familytreewebinars.com/webinar/sorting-dna-matches-with-myheritages-theory-of-family-relativity/

Wednesday 28 January

2 pm: Make Easy Video Stories Your Family Will Cherish, by Rhonda Lauritzen for Legacy Family Tree Webinars.
https://familytreewebinars.com/webinar/make-easy-video-stories-your-family-will-cherish/

8 pm: Foundations in AI for Family History 3 of 5: Using AI Responsibly: Principles and Ethics, by Andrew Redfern and Fiona Brooker for Legacy Family Tree Webinars. (Legacy FTW Members Only)
https://familytreewebinars.com/webinar/foundations-in-ai-for-family-history-3-of-5-using-ai-responsibly-principles-and-ethics/

Thursday 29 January

6:30 pm: No Documentation, No Problem! Leveraging Context,
Relationships, and DNA to find Harry’s Father, by Linda McCracken for Allen County Public Library Genealogy Center.
https://acpl.libnet.info/event/15266087

Friday 30 January

Saturday 31 January