There are several factors in estimating the number of descendants of home children from statistics. You have to take into account the number of descendants of a home child, and then their descendants, and so on. At each stage there will be “leakage”.
On average, each home child had a certain number of offspring. Is that the same as for the same age cohort established in Canada? Could a traumatic childhood have meant home children had fewer offspring on average? It could have meant they died younger before having as many children as the population at large.
Did home children leave Canada in greater numbers than the general Canadian population? Having moved at least once, so being less firmly rooted, they may have been more inclined to seek greener pastures by returning to their roots in the UK or trying their luck in the USA or further afield.
When it comes to the number of descendants it doesn’t matter whether the parent is male or female, but a complicating factor is if the mother and father are both home children.
Say each home child had three children; if both the mother and father were home children, then there would be three home children descendants rather than six.
How often do we have the situation of a home child mother and father? How might they make acquaintance? Perhaps at a church or social event in a small community.
Let’s look at a scenario.
100 boys go to a dance at which there are 100 girls. One of the boys is a home child. How does the chances of him making the best connection with a home child girl depend in the number of home child girls?
If there are no home child girls at the dance it’s zero. If one then it’s one in a hundred, 1%, and so on.
Now suppose twenty home girls are invited to a dance and eighty a non-home-girls. Similarly twenty home boys and eighty non-home boys. What is the probability that at least one home child boy and girl hit it off?
The answer is probability 0.34 or 34%. The calculation is based on conditional probability and the binomial distribution.
It’s probably greater as young people of similar background would likely find commonality of interest enough to be encouraged to get to know each other better than a random person.
The calculation assumes the chance of meeting is random and independent. But it could well be that someone goes to a dance with a buddy, he or she gets to meet someone who also came to the dance with a buddy, and the two buddies are introduced.
While I’ve heard of two home children marrying and having children I know of no statistics. If you do please leave a comment.
All these factors suggest fewer home child descendants than indicated by naive estimates.